Wednesday, March 29, 2006

On the Front: A Pandemic Is Worrisome but 'Unlikely'
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL, Published: March 28, 2006

OXFORD, England — The Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, where Dr. Jeremy Farrar works, has treated about two dozen people with avian influenza in the last three years.

Dr. Jeremy Farrar. The Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, where Dr. Farrar works, has treated about two dozen patients with avian flu.
AFRICA Migratory birds take off from a beach in Senegal, in February.

With that tiny number, Dr. Farrar and his Vietnamese colleagues probably have more clinical experience than any other doctors with the A(H5N1) virus — the dreaded germ that international health officials fear may ignite the next flu pandemic.

Yet, Dr. Farrar notes, this trickle of humans infected with bird flu — 186 in all since 2003 — has provoked a flood of scientific meetings on pandemics, accelerating in recent months.

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